Topic 4: Experimentation, Metrics, and Analysis

This topic includes experiments, metrics and analyses related to any aspect of command and control - networking, management or governance, information sharing, trust, shared awareness, shared understanding, decision-making, planning. execution and assessments of ongoing operations.

Paper 007

Abstract Title: Exploring Composite Network Agility
Point of Contact (POC): Kevin Chan
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 703 845 2411
POC Organization: Army Research Laboratory
Country: US
Authors: Chan, Kevin ARL
Alberts, David IDA

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 017

Abstract Title: The Quest for Key Information: Does C2 Approach Matter?
Point of Contact (POC): David Alberts
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 703 845 2411
POC Organization: IDA
Country: USA
Authors: David S. Alberts - Institute for Defense Analyses
Marius S. Vassiliou - Institute for Defense Analyses

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 018

Abstract Title: Performance of Wireless Networks in Highly Reflective Rooms with Variable Absorption
Point of Contact (POC): Steven Iatrou
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 831-656-3770
POC Organization: Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA
Country: United States
Authors: Intini, Anibal. Colonel, Argentina Army
Gibson, John. Naval Postgraduate School
Iatrou, Steven. Naval Postgraduate School

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 029

Abstract Title: SOA Experiments on Wireless Broadband Mobile Networks in the Tactical Domain
Point of Contact (POC): Marco Manso
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: +44 (0) 7591 179991
POC Organization: Rinicom Ltd.
Country: UK
Authors: DEU, Barz, Christoph, Fraunhofer FKIE,
DEU, Jansen, Norman, Fraunhofer FKIE,
GBR, Alcaraz-Calero, Jose-Maria, University of the West of Scotland,
GBR, Manso, Marco, Rinicom,
GBR, Markarian, Garik, Rinicom,
GBR, Owens, Ian, Cranfield Defence and Security,
GBR, Wang, Qi, University of the West of Scotland,
NLD, Meiler, Peter-Paul, TNO Defence, Netherlands,
NOR, Hafsøe Bloebaum, Trude, FFI,
NOR, Johnsen, Frank Trethan, FFI,
POL, Sliwa, Joanna, Military Communication Institute, Poland
USA, Chan, Kevin, Army Research Laboratory,

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 032

Abstract Title: Mobile Cloud Computing for C2 - Operating in Intermittent, Austere Network Conditions
Point of Contact (POC):  Man-Tak Shing
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 831 656 2634
POC Organization: Naval Postgraduate School
Country:  USA
Authors: Gurminder Singh, Man-Tak Shing, John H. Gibson, Yu Xian Ling, Toon Joo Wee

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 064

Abstract Title: Analyzing Historical Trends to Predict Future Software Vulnerabilities

Point of Contact (POC): David Last

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: 315-330-2911

POC Organization: Air Force Research Laboratory, Information Directorate

Country: United States

Authors: David Last, Air Force Research Laboratory

Abstract: It seems that every day in the news, we hear of new zero-day vulnerabilities that are being exploited to disastrous effect. Because these vulnerabilities are previously undiscovered, network administrators do not have the information to decide where to deploy (command and control) limited resources to protect these unknown weak points. The ability to predict the location and characteristics of the next big vulnerability would provide a huge advantage to network defenders. Various Software Vulnerability Discovery Models have been developed to analyze trends in vulnerability discovery [1] [2] [3]; however, little work has been done to actually predict future vulnerabilities, and what work has been done has met with limited success [4]. We believe that some existing vulnerability discovery models are valid, but they fail to account for many factors that affect the vulnerability discovery rate. These unaccounted-for factors include vulnerability hunter enthusiasm (which depends on the perceived reward for discovering software vulnerabilities); the reputation (vulnerability history) of different categories (e.g. web browsers), vendors (e.g. Apple), and applications (e.g. Internet Explorer); time between software version releases; etc. We believe that we can discover the relationships between these factors and the vulnerability discovery rate so as to incorporate them into the existing vulnerability discovery models to improve their predictive capabilities. This will allow us to predict the number, severity, and characteristics of yet-to-be-discovered software vulnerabilities. This paper details the first step in this effort. We analyze patterns in the vulnerability discovery rate for all reported software vulnerabilities, and also across different categories (e.g. web browser, OS, web video player); this discovery rate will be used as a proxy for “enthusiasm” in future work. Different enthusiasm models accounting for both recent and long-term trends in vulnerability hunter behavior are evaluated against a subset of historical vulnerability data, and then used to predict vulnerabilities in another subset of historical data. This analysis allows us to predict the number, severity, and characteristics of as-yet-undiscovered vulnerabilities within certain confidence bounds. The results demonstrate that this approach has strong predictive capabilities that will aid network defenders in the never-ending arms race against outside intruders.


[1] R. Anderson, "Security in open versus closed systems - The dance of Boltzmann, Coase and Moore," in Open Source Software: Economics, Law, and Policy, Toulouse, France, 2002.
[2] O. Alhazmi and Y. Malaiya, "Quantitative vulnerability assessment of systems software," in Proc. Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium, 2005.
[3] E. Rescola, "Is finding security holes a good idea?," Security and Privacy, pp. 14-19, Jan./Feb. 2005.
[4] S. Zhang, D. Caragea and X. Ou, "An empirical study on using the national vulnerability database to predict software vulnerabilities," in Database and Expert Systems Applications, Berlin Heidelberg, Springer, 2011, pp. 217-231.

Paper 067

Abstract Title: Experiments on Pico-Satellites for Maritime Security Applications
Point of Contact (POC): Marco Manso* (POC has changed)
POC Email Address: * (POC has changed)
POC Phone Number: +306956021520
POC Organization: University of the Aegean
Country: Greece
Authors: Georgios Mantzouris, Ph.Dc, University of the Aegean, Greece
Prof. Periklis Papadopoulos, San Jose State University, USA
Prof. Nikitas Nikitakos, University of the Aegean, Greece
Marco Manso, RINICOM Ltd., UK
Prof. Garik Markarian, RINICOM Ltd., UK

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 069

Abstract Title: Coping with Uncertainty: Improving Trust in Digital C2
Point of Contact (POC): Greg Judd
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: +61 8 7389 5335
POC Organization: Defence Science and Technology Organisation
Country: Australia
Authors: Greg Judd, Andrew Coutts, Luke Finlay

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Paper 073

Abstract Title: Using risk management techniques to handle planning assumptions in command and control – an overview
Point of Contact (POC): Joacim Rydmark
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: +46 8 553 425 00
POC Organization: Swedish National Defence College
Country: SWEDEN
Authors: Joacim Rydmark

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 079

Abstract Title: Quantitative Metrics of Command & Control – a Literature Review
Point of Contact (POC): Nicoletta Baroutsi
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: +46 733 94 37 69
POC Organization: Swedish National Defence College
Country: Sweden 
Authors: Nicoletta Baroutsi

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Paper 082

Abstract Title: Assessing Interorganizational Trust and its Preconditions

Point of Contact (POC): Eva Jensen

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: +46 733 284720

POC Organization: Swedish Defence University

Country: Sweden

Authors: Eva Jensen

Abstract: The task of a crises management system is to curb the effects of crises, emergencies, and disasters. The system is put to test whenever it is called upon to deal with such unhappy events. The consequences of a low-performing crisis management system are generally dire. It is therefore desirable to be able to assess a system’s crisis, emergency, and disaster management capabilities beforehand, prior to employing it in a real-life situation.

We aim to develop an instrument for assessing the command, control and coordination capabilities of organizations involved in crises management. This paper presents prior work on assessment of organizational capabilities, and recommendations provided by researchers in that area. The concept of design research is presented together with the much cited guidelines by Hevner and colleagues on how to perform sound design research. 

The paper investigates to what extent the approach to assessment of C2 proposed in “C2 by Design: A Handbook for Putting Command and Control Agility Theory Into Practice” complies with the recommendations, and to what extent it meets our needs. While offering a good place to start, there are still several issues remaining to be dealt with.

 Since part of the theme of the 2015 ICCRTS is trust, and since trust is vital to inter-organizational cooperation, the further discussion concentrates on assessments related to trust. In information exchange, people need to be able to trust the information they receive, and that they will receive the information they need, and that information is kept secret when necessary. In exchanges of goods and services, people want to trust that others will make their resources available when needed, and that others will not make unnecessary demands on their own resources. The paper suggests means to assess that such requirements are met.

Paper 088

Abstract Title: An Analysis of Lessons Learned Relevant for Agility in Military Operations
Point of Contact (POC): Marie-Eve Jobidon
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 416-635-2000 x3119
POC Organization: Defence R&D Canada, Toronto Research Centre
Country: Canada
Authors: Marie-Eve Jobidon (DRDC, Toronto Research Centre)
Barbara D. Adams (HumanSystems)
Micheline Bélanger (DRDC, Valcartier Research Centre)
Erica Elderhorst (HumanSystems)

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Paper 089

Abstract Title: An Empirical Test of the C2 Agility Model in a Crisis Management Situation
Point of Contact (POC): Sebastien Tremblay
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: (418) 656-2131 #2886
POC Organization: School of psychology, Laval University
Country: Canada
Authors: Turcotte, Isabelle, Laval University
Tremblay, Sébastien, Laval University
Farrell, Philip, DRDC Toronto
Jobidon, Marie-Eve, DRDC Toronto

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 091

Abstract Title: Modeling Information Propagation in Overlapping and Adaptive Social, Information, and Communication Networks
Point of Contact (POC): Lisa Scott
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 301-394-3974
POC Organization: Army Research Laboratory (ARL)
Country: United States of America
Authors: Lisa Scott and Kevin Chan (ARL)
Will Dron and Alice Leung (BBN)
David Alberts (IDA)

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 096

Abstract Title: Factors Influencing Agility in Allocating Decision-Making Rights for Cyberspace Operations
Point of Contact (POC): Steven Stone
POC Email Address:
POC Phone Number: 540-735-5238
POC Organization: Robert Morris University
Country: USA
Authors: Steven W. Stone

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Paper 097

Abstract Title: Target Development and Prioritization

Point of Contact (POC): Soner MOROĞLU

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: 0090 542 342 4624

POC Organization: Turkish Air War College


Authors: Soner MOROĞLU

Abstract: Targeting continues to be a core Air Force Intelligence discipline. Air Force targeting is in evolutionary transition to support Global Engagement and the Core Competencies of Information Superiority and Precision Engagement. This means we can no longer think of targeting as just the bridge between operations and intelligence, but instead visualize full interoperability between Information Operators and Combat Operators. Targeting continues to be the process of recommending to a commander the targets that support the commander’s objectives and the best weapons, which can include lethal and non lethal means, to achieve a desired level of damage and effects to those targets.

Targeting is the process of selecting targets and matching the appropriate response to them, taking account of operational requirements and capabilities; The analysis of enemy situations relative to the commander's mission, objectives and capabilities at the commander's disposal, to identify and nominate specific vulnerabilities that, if exploited, will accomplish the commander's purpose through delaying, disrupting, disabling, or destroying enemy forces or resources critical to the enemy. The exploitation of information, although not mentioned in the joint definition, is also of great importance.

 Target development entails the systematic examination of potential target systems, their components and the elements which make up each component in order to determine the importance, priority, weight of effort, and appropriate weapons selection for specific target systems. It identifies the critical components of a target system and their vulnerabilities to attack or other action. Target Analysis is an examination of potential targets to determine military importance, priority and weapons required to obtain a desired level of damage or casualties.

Paper 113

Abstract Title: An Experimentation Framework for Federated Data-Sharing Services Operating in Disrupted,
Disconnected, Intermittent, and Limited-bandwidth (D-DIL) Environments

Point of Contact (POC): Jayson Durham

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: 619-553-2344

POC Organization: SSC Pacific

Country: USA

Authors: Jayson Durham, Ryan Gabrys, and Mark Bilinski

(Full Paper Here)

Paper 127

Abstract Title: Representation of complex spatiotemporal maritime events with interval graphs

Point of Contact (POC): Benjamin Migliori

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: 619 553 9269

POC Organization: SSC Pacific

Country: USA

Authors: Benjamin Migliori, James Law

Abstract: In this paper, we will present an application of interval theory to the problem of representing spatiotemporal events within semantic graphs. Semantic graphs, in which concepts and relationships are represented by nodes and vertices, have advanced our ability to objectively describe highly interdependent events. Domain-specific ontologies can inform search patterns describing event archetypes to be found within the specific data. Additionally, development of semantic pattern finding algorithms, such as Complex Event Processing (CEP), have reduced the computational effort required to identify pattern instances to from NP-hard to polynomial in some circumstances. However, constructing the graph and the ontology used to describe each graph element remains difficult. One major difficulty is the representation of event sequence and causality; much of the research in this area studies static graphs. For C2ISR operations, the ability to identify and describe dynamic situations is crucial.
Our research will leverage results in interval graph theory, in which the real line is divided into a set of intervals, to extend semantic graphs to include the concepts of time and causality. We will present an ontology containing the elements of Allen’s temporal interval algebra A13 that can be appended to the relevant spatial and domain model used to build a semantic graph. This extension will allow definition of nodes and edges describing event sequence, overlap, and causality. By building an interval graph algebra into the ontology, it becomes possible to define new and important search patterns into existing algorithms. Our paper will include examples such as white shipping traffic exhibiting abnormal emitter activity, vessel loitering with time dependence, and AIS spoofing. Although these examples are specific to the maritime domain, we will present an outline showing how our proposed ontology extension can be applied to any representable domain.

Paper 128

Abstract Title: Metrics and Methodology to Assess Maritime Task Group Shared Situation Awareness

Point of Contact (POC): Aren Hunter

POC Email Address:

POC Phone Number: 902-426-3100 ext 328

POC Organization: Defence Research and Development Canada Atlantic Research Centre

Country: Canada

Authors: Aren Hunter, Tania Randall

Abstract: DRDC Atlantic is assessing Shared Situational Awareness (SSA) between the Commander-Task Group (CTG) and the Maritime Component Command Element (MCCE) during a distributed coalition-based exercise involving Joint Fires missions set to begin in January 2015. The proposed paper will outline the methodologies used, the development of metrics and some of the experimental results of this exercise. Specifically, the paper will discuss the utilization of a rapid version of task analysis as a way of determining the common Situation Awareness (SA) requirements between the CTG and MCCE. The results of the rapid task analysis will be used as the bases for formulating the specific SSA questions used during the exercise. The pros and cons of the methodology, along with the metrics developed for the measurement of SSA will be discussed.